The Republicans would be hard-pushed to lose the Senate, though. It looks much closer than the House: they only have 51/100 (there are 2 independents who vote with the Democrats so it's essentially 51:49), but then they only need 50/100 to pass legislation since they have Pence's tiebreaker vote. The problem, though, is that 10 of the seats the Democrats are defending voted for Trump in 2016, compared to only 1 Clinton-voting seat for the GOP.
I know not everyone who voted Trump in 2016 will vote GOP on Tuesday, but it doesn't look good for the Democrats from that perspective.
Almost whatever happens, Trump will claim victory: the seats the GOP loses will be the individual candidates' fault, whereas the seats they hold/gain will be all down to him. If he can hold on to one half of Congress (probably the Senate), he has won.
I don’t know where Dems go if they don’t win this, just watching from afar with little knowledge or history with any of this the mainline I see many running with is "time to take back control" etc.
If they fail to get the votes then I think they are going to need a total rethink.
It’s a bit like how it is over here if Labour had any sort of leader and plan I couldn’t see how they would lose because the Tories have made such a fuck up of everything and are so hated just being competent should see them win.
With the seats that are actually up in the Senate, it's near-impossible for the Democrats to win it. The most likely result is the House flips and the Senate stays the same. If the House doesn't change, that's a shock. If the Senate and House change, that's a massive shock.
Kind of disappointed with that. I had hoped there would be an outright rejection of all the craziness we have witnessed in the last 2 years. Even the last two weeks alone. Sure democrats have made some gains but nothing groundbreaking. The Trumpsters will see this as a win and take it into 2020.
A good night for Dems. The House was always the aim and the governorships have gone well too. They weren't even being considered as potentially winning the Senate until McConnell started talking about it (and O'Rourke, in particular, was attracting attention).
Notable too the size of the Republican wins in 2018 vs 2016. In states that Trump won handily, it was going down to the wire.
Also a good few significant wins in state votes regarding either voting or decidedly non-GOP policies.
The results went precisely as many/most predicted: only the media and the hyperbolic spoke of Blue Waves TBH. The Democrats won the House; the Senate stayed in GOP hands; turnout appears to be strong.
Some stars failed there's no doubt: Gillum losing out to a dog-whistling Rep. in Florida must sting, while Beto was being touted as a future Presidential candidate yet couldn't unseat Ted Cruz. Beyond that though, everything went as predicted.
Gillum, Abrams and O'Rourke are big losses. When you look at the size of the margins you see why GOP had to so aggressively cheat in those races.
I wonder what the Dems will start at? They should definitely go aggressively on election reform. Having candidates oversee their own elections is preposterous. Gerrymandering and voter suppression are major issues too. I have a feeling they'll go straight for Trump though. I think that would be a mistake.