Brexit Discussion Thread

Dylan

Dylan

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Sad Professor

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HM Revenue and Customs has said the “max fac” customs plan favoured by leading cabinet Brexiters would cost British business up to £20bn a year. The alternative new customs partnership (NCP) plan, thought to be favoured by Theresa May, could cost British business nothing once set up, HMRC said. But it confirmed that it still thinks it could take five years to set up the NCP scheme.

This is what Jon Thompson, chief executive and permanent secretary at HMRC, told the Treasury committee about the costs of “max fac” for business.

“Max fac”, or maximum facilitation, is the term currently popular in Whitehall to describe the highly streamlined customs arrangement - one of the two post-Brexit customs options being considered by the government. “Max fac” would involve using technology and trusted trader arrangements to keep customs checks to a minimum. It is strongly supported by Brexiters like Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Jacob Rees-Mogg because they think the alternative, the new customs partnership (NCP) would be overly complicated and would keep the UK in the customs union, at least effectively or perhaps even for real.

Asked how much “max fac” (which he referred to as the highly streamlined customs arrangement) would cost business, Thompson told MPs:

We know that there were in 2016 almost 200m intra-EU consignments. So that is the base number. That has been audited by the NAO and is in a report on the customs declaration service.
The question is, how much does it cost to complete a customs declaration? We’ve done some work ourselves. There have been at least two independent reports, one by the University of Nottingham business school and one by KPMG earlier in the year.

The answer to that question is it’s between £20 and £55. You can’t average it out because of weighting but for ministers we’ve settled on £32.50 per customs declaration.
So you’ve got 200m customs declarations at £32.50. That’s £6.5bn.
[That’s on the UK side. There are declarations required on the EU side too] so you double that number, probably. That takes you then to £13bn.

You’ve then got the question about what might be the requirements from the European Union on rules of origin. Is this cheese from Cheddar? It’s quite difficult to estimate that, but it would be reasonable to think that it is several billions pounds more.

So you need to think about the highly streamlined customs arrangement costing businesses somewhere in the late teens of billions of pounds, somewhere between £17bn and £20bn. And the primary driver here is the fact that there are customs declarations.
 
Zidane

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https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/25/galileo-uk-will-build-own-satellite-system-if-frozen-out-of-eu-brexit

The chancellor, Philip Hammond, has warned that the UK will build its own satellite navigation system to rival the European Union’s €10bn (£9bn) Galileo project if Brussels carries out its threat to block access.

The shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, said: “On the same day the Office for National Statistics has confirmed that UK economic growth is the weakest it’s been in six years, it’s not surprising the chancellor is looking to focus on matters in outer space.

“Working people will be rightly angry that Philip Hammond can find billions of pounds at the drop of a hat for a space programme, yet is not prepared to find the money our vital public services like the NHS desperately need.

“It’s time the chancellor came down to Earth, to prove he is on the same planet as the rest of us by recognising what he is putting people in our country through with his austerity cuts.”
I'm not convinced that even with their own £8b satellite navigation system, the Tories would be able to steer HMS Brexit towards any particular destination!
 
Bandit

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Surely she cannot believe what she is actually saying here?


The experts say there will be at least a £15 billion hole in the finances.
 
THREAD STARTER
CaptainObvious

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I'm starting to really hate this woman, she is beneath contempt.
 
Zidane

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Surely she cannot believe what she is actually saying here?
That's a tactic, May replaces only what is lost but claims that the NHS gets more.

Same thing happened in Austria with tuition fees, the minister claimed that this would go fully to the universities where it is hard to argue against it. Meanwhile the university budget was slashed so the additional fees only compensate for what was deducted.
 
Gemma

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Surely she cannot believe what she is actually saying here?
That's a tactic, May replaces only what is lost but claims that the NHS gets more.
She is trying to hoodwink the public and some will fall for it. She really is the worst PM of all time in my opinion. I didn't vote for Brexit and now more than ever before I think leaving the EU is the wrong thing to do - the government have no idea what they are doing.
 
Franco Pinion

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Interesting poll results here.

The poll by Conservative peer Michael Ashcroft found that, given a straight choice between a hard border and remaining in the customs union, 41 per cent of all voters would choose a hard border compared to 32 per cent who would remain in the customs union. Leave voters would choose a hard border by 66 per cent to 10 per cent and Conservative voters would make the same choice by 67 per cent to 14 per cent.

Lord Ashcroft’s poll found that, asked to choose between keeping the UK together and leaving the EU, 63 per cent of British voters would leave the EU, compared with 27 per cent who would keep the UK together. Among Conservative voters, 73 per cent would choose leaving the EU with just 22 per cent saying they would keep the UK together. Labour voters would choose leaving the EU over keeping the UK together by 50 per cent to 34 per cent.

“Those who have pondered Brexit’s consequences for UK union have usually focused on the resentment felt in places where majorities voted to remain in the EU,” Lord Ashcroft wrote.

“But there is another risk: that a question like the Irish border, which most Leave voters see as a relatively minor practical issue that could be resolved, should prevent the majority getting the Brexit they think they voted for.”


Two out of three British voters who backed Brexit would prefer to see a hard border in Ireland than for Britain to remain in the EU customs union, according to a new poll.

Only one in three British voters said they could not accept a different status for Northern Ireland after Brexit and six out of 10 Leave voters said that leaving the EU was more important than keeping the United Kingdom together.
 

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